| 10 mins read
Anya Pearson interviews Professor Anand Menon, who is Director of the academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe, which provides impartial, research-based analysis of the critical issues facing the UK. Menon is also Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King's College London, and a member of the Political Quarterly editorial board. Describing himself as a ‘bitter and twisted observer of politics’, Menon is a frequent contributor to the media on matters relating to British relations with the EU.
So far, how do you rate Labour’s communications machine versus the Brown/Blair years?
It's a very difficult comparison because the times are so different and it's relatively early days for this Labour government. In 1997 journalists were obsessed with messaging but we're more used to that sort of stuff now. People sense Labour are a little bit surprised by just how much criticism there has been so soon.
I think there has also been an issue around the negative messaging from the Government. Andy Haldane recently said that this it can hamper economic growth because it depresses consumer confidence. It puts people off spending money or making investments. That matters more now than it did in 1997. Back then, growth was over four and a half percent per annum. Even sticking to Tory spending plans, there was money left to invest in public services. That's simply not the case now.
What are your key lessons in effectively communicating social science to non-academic audiences? How do you know when you have succeeded?
Be timely, be clear and be short. I’m tempted to leave it at that, to underline the point! One of the great things about doing non-academic writing is you're far more likely to be in communication with your audience, for example via social media, which is a very good way of gauging audience reaction. And I suppose when it comes to the broadcast media, you know it's working if they invite you back!
How do you see the future of the Conservative Party? Might it be replaced by one of the smaller parties?
I think it's very unlikely they'll be replaced, simply because of the way our electoral system works. I always thought they'd be more likely to be taken over by one faction or another, like the Republicans have been taken over by the MAGA crowd. Apart from anything else, the Conservative Party owns a lot of [voter] data, and that's priceless. If you wanted to replace them, it would be far more effective to take it over from within.
How well they do over the next few years is going to hinge partly on who they elect as leader and how popular they are; how quickly they manage to get a message across that they are electable again; and how well Labour do in power. If we get to the next election and the economy is growing and waiting lists have shrunk, then I'm not sure there's anything any leader of the opposition can do to stop Labour. But you need noticeable progress. People need to have that operation they were waiting for for three years.
This was a weird election, because Labour were elected with a massive majority but the lowest vote share of any successful government. 34% is lower than the 35% Tony Blair got in 2005. Labour will be challenged from all sides at the next election. Crafting a message that allows you to fight in all directions is problematic. Testament to the lack of enthusiasm about this election was the fact that the vast majority of incumbents, even when re-elected, lost vote share.
Has the Grenfell tower inquiry delivered anything of substance?
One of the fundamental problems with inquiries is not that they lack sensible recommendations, but that quite often those recommendations aren't acted upon. So my cop out answer to that question is we don't know, because actually, the proof of the pudding is in the action, which is a horrible mixed metaphor! There were some very sensible things in the Grenfell Inquiry Report. They're absolutely irrelevant unless governments take them on board. The government response to the inquiry will give us the answer to that question, and that's due next year.
What implications does the clear link between deregulation/under-resourced regulation and tragedy have for Labour’s regulation agenda?
Many of the participants named have refuted the idea that this was a failure of deregulation. It becomes easier, in the light of Grenfell, for Labour to push through regulation on health and safety and workers’ rights.
UK-EU relations were not a dominant issue in the election campaign this year. But the EU is still very influential on British politics. How good do you think Keir Starmer will be restoring these “broken relationships”, in his words? Is there enough goodwill towards him from, for example, Michel Barnier?
I don't think goodwill matters particularly. Starmer has already been very successful in changing the tone. We saw that in his visit to Dublin recently. You know the language about shared responsibilities under the Good Friday Agreement? This was a welcome change from some of the more aggressive and combative language we've heard from Conservative politicians. That being said, the success of the substantive agenda he's going to pursue with regard to the European Union will depend on whether he can convince them that there's something in it for them. The European Union isn’t sentimental and won’t make concessions to Keir Starmer simply because he's not a Conservative. It'll depend on the deal that they can stitch together.
How do you think the wars between Ukraine and Russia, and between Israel and Palestine will impact UK/European relations?
Gaza will have less of an impact than Ukraine, because Ukraine is a war on European soil in which we feel directly implicated; it's so close to NATO member states; and so many NATO member states’ immediate interests are implicated. That has meant that even under Boris Johnson we collaborated quite closely with the European Union. I think there's an appetite on both sides to reinforce the security relationship, and I think we'll see the fruit of that quite soon. We've already seen it with Keir Starmer's talk of a bilateral security deal with Germany. Gaza will have less of an impact because, rightly or wrongly, we feel less implicated in Gaza and have far less influence because of the tremendous leverage the US enjoys over Israel. There isn't that much that Europe can do. I suspect the European Union to be far more engaged when it comes to post conflict reconstruction.
Alternative for Germany won two German state elections earlier this month. Why haven’t mainstream politicians managed to prevent this? Can it happen here?
First and foremost, we have very different electoral systems. So actually, our electoral system makes it harder for parties outside the big two, or arguably the big three, to make electoral breakthroughs. Bear in mind too, that they won two states which make up a very small proportion of the population of Germany as a whole, and which are specifically states in the former East Germany. My sense is that German politicians have failed to provide a sense of economic security. As in all European countries, immigration has become an incredibly sensitive political issue. And concern about immigration quite often translates into support for some of these more populist parties. The solutions, insofar as there are any, are complicated and are medium to long term. It's harder to sell those sorts of things, in contrast to the easy answers offered by populism.
You recently heard that your funders, the Economic and Social Science Research Council, have decided not to continue funding UK in a Changing Europe next year. What legacy think UKICE will leave on the landscape?
Well first and foremost, I haven’t given up on finding alternative sources of funding, so don’t write us off just yet! In terms of legacy I think – or at least I hope – that we have contributed to changing the way people outside universities think about academics and academic research. There are many journalists and civil servants, business organisations and indeed members of the general public who are now interested in what the social science research might have to say about a particular issue than was the case previously, and I like to think we have played a small part in helping bring that about.
