Senedd Reform: From Aspiration to Cold-Headed Reality?

In May 2024, the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill concluded its legislative journey. The bill continues the process of the Senedd’s transformation from the sixty-member secondary lawmaking assembly created in the Government of Wales Act 1998 into a primary lawmaking and tax-raising legislature known since 2020 as the Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliament. This latest bill means that the Senedd elected after the 2026 election will be a ninety-six-member chamber, elected purely by proportional representation (PR). This is a significant moment in the story of Welsh devolution and marks the culmination of a debate that began before the Government of Wales Act 1998 which itself, as we will see, has been shaped by a blend of aspiration and realpolitik.

A twenty-year drum beat for an expanded Senedd

Before the 1998 act had completed its legislative journey, there were concerns that the National Assembly for Wales would have insufficient capacity to fulfil its scrutiny functions, would have enough Members to function effectively. The 2000 Richard Commission was clear that an increase in the assembly’s competence would necessitate an expansion in its size from sixty to eighty members. Furthermore, it recommended that the electoral system should be changed from the additional member system (AMS) to the single transferable vote (STV) system. The then UK government rejected the Richard commission’s electoral reform proposals.

However, Scotland’s vote to remain part of the United Kingdom in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum led to talks on further devolution to Wales. These cross-party discussions resulted in the publication of the UK government white paper Powers for a Purpose in February 2015, which agreed that control over the assembly’s composition and electoral system should be devolved, subject to any changes of major constitutional importance being dependent on a supermajority of assembly members. These changes were implemented as part of the Wales Act 2017, meaning the assembly had the destiny of reform within its own grasp.

In January 2015, before the white paper and the Wales Act 2017 began its legislative passage, the assembly commission published The Future of the Assembly. It concluded the assembly was ‘underpowered’ and ‘over-stretched,’ recommending expansion to ‘between eighty and 100 members if it is properly to hold the Welsh government to account.’ By February 2017, another expert panel on assembly electoral reform recommended either STV or a flexible list system of PR for an eighty or ninety-seat Senedd, which was again reiterated in 2020 by a new committee. Regarding how an expanded Senedd should be elected, the 2020 committee recommended adopting STV from 2026 onwards. The committee also examined gender equality, considering the expert panel’s recommendation to integrate quotas into Senedd reform legislation.

Taken together, by 2021, there appeared to be broad support for Senedd reform, including measures to expand its role as a primary legislative and scrutiny body, increase its seats to at least eighty, and adopt STV.

The sixth Senedd: Senedd reform becomes reality

Shortly after the May 2021 Senedd election, then-First Minister Mark Drakeford supported an enlarged and reformed Senedd. On 6 October 2021, the Senedd established a Special Purpose Committee (SPC) on Senedd reform, comprising members predominantly from Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, alongside the Llywydd and the sole Welsh Liberal Democrat. The Welsh Conservatives participated initially but withdrew before the SPC concluded.

In December 2021, a cooperation agreement between the Welsh Labour government and Plaid Cymru committed both parties to Senedd reform. They proposed a ninety-six-member Senedd elected through closed proportional lists with integrated statutory gender quotas. Seats would be allocated using the D’Hondt formula, reflecting Labour’s historical caution about PR. While some Welsh Labour members supported STV, closed-list PR offered a compromise, balancing proportionality with party cohesion.

Ultimately, the SPC’s final report on 30 May 2022 highlighted significant political changes, such as increased devolved responsibilities post-Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Wales’ reduced Westminster representation. These developments, it argued, necessitated a Senedd larger than the 80–90 members proposed by the 2017 expert panel. The SPC endorsed Labour and Plaid’s proposal for ninety-six members, arguing this would enhance scrutiny of the Welsh government’s expanding powers and responsibilities.

The SPC report also examined various electoral systems, including MMP, STV, and flexible list proportional representation. It ruled out the current AMS as unsuitable for a Senedd exceeding eighty members without increasing constituencies or favouring regional members, both deemed undesirable. The SPC also dismissed STV, despite its longstanding advocacy by previous reviews, on the basis that voter preferences raised concerns about potential gender bias, conflicting with Labour and Plaid’s commitment to statutory gender quotas. Instead, the SPC favoured closed party lists, which align with the Labour-Plaid position paper.

In one fell swoop, the Labour-Plaid position paper effectively ended an 18-year consensus that STV should be adopted as the electoral system of an enlarged Senedd. With the cooperation agreement parties holding forty-two members, they met the supermajority threshold required to implement Senedd reform. Their intervention significantly shaped the SPC’s conclusions.

Conclusion: the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill

On 18 September 2023, the Welsh government tabled the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill, finally moving the long-running debate on the Senedd’s capacity into the policy implementation phase. For twenty years, there had been a broad consensus that the Senedd was too small, its capacity stretched too thin, and that its membership needed to increase to almost 100 with members elected via STV. In this sense, the bill represents the culmination of that consensus.

However, the electoral system that will be used is closed-list PR, not STV. The SPC’s 2022 endorsement of this system marked a departure from the previous consensus. This shift was driven by the realpolitik and compromises required to secure the supermajority mandated by the Wales Act 2017, with Labour and Plaid Cymru prioritising an agreement within and between their parties to ensure reform was politically feasible. Although many of the aspirations of the Richard Commission were met, the final reform was finally shaped by cold-headed reality.