| 6 mins read
SUMMARY
- The Green Party could win over 60 seats in Westminster according to the Electoral Calculus predictions.
- This would potentially constitute a better performance than the German Greens, Die Grunen, at a General Election.
- The British Greens' success is partly due to Labour's rupture with the left, exacerbated by the worsening divide over on Israel, Palestine, and Gaza.
- There is also a lack of a well organised left-wing alternative to Labour.
- Potential internal contradictions of the Greens' political alliance could pose problems for appealing to more centre political ground, but this may not matter for now.
The Green Party of England and Wales, which has long been a relative lightweight in terms of electoral performance compared to some European Green Parties, has leaped ahead of most of them now. This follows on from the fragmentation of establishment parties in general, and that of the electoral base of the Labour Party in particular.
As I write, the Green Party of England and Wales stands at 16 per cent according to YouGov polling. This follows a gain of over 400 seats in the May 2026 local elections and an increase in representation for the Scottish Greens, who now hold 15 out of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament. If the YouGov poll was repeated at a General Election, then the Greens are likely to win over 60 seats in Westminster according to the Electoral Calculus predictions.
16 per cent of the national vote would potentially constitute a better performance than the German Greens, Die Grunen, at a General Election – their maximum Federal election share being 14.7 per cent in 2021. The comparison with De Grunen is apposite, since for a long time the British Greens failed to emulate Die Grunen’s ability to attract support from left wing activists. Die Grunen began in the 1980s, recruiting heavily from the anti-nuclear (weapons and energy) movements. It was during this decade that it formed and consolidated itself as a party, setting down roots in Länder politics (the governance and elections of Germany’s 16 individual states).
Yet in the UK the Greenham Common-style anti nuclear protests were more often anchored in party-political terms by people from the Labour left. The British Greens often seemed more of a rurally based party focusing principally anti-roads campaigning and other environmental concerns. This changed to an extent through electoral gains in some urban areas such as Bristol, London and Brighton, the latter of which saw the Greens achieve its first MP, Caroline Lucas, in 2010.
However, on the left, the appeal of the Greens was overshadowed by the forces of the Labour left, especially following the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader in 2016. Yet this leftist triumph also paved the way for an opportunity for the Greens when Corbyn lost office after the 2019 General Election. Labour’s new leader, Keir Starmer, sought to shore up the weakened position of the Labour Party by trying to wed the party to the centre.
However, in doing so, Starmer sparked a rupture with the left. This rupture was exacerbated by the worsening divide over policy on Israel, Palestine, and latterly Gaza. This resulted in the departure of many Labour activists from the Labour Party itself (including Corbyn). At the same time the attractiveness of the Green Party for left wingers increased, especially as green leaders such as Greta Thunberg started campaigning for Palestinian rights in the conflict over Gaza. This also opened up the possibility that Greens could connect with Muslim communities
The 2024 General election saw the Greens increase their number of MPs from one to four. The party was already picking up extra support on account of early leftist disillusion with Labour. However, when the Green Party leadership was renewed in an internal leadership election the so-called ‘eco-populist’ Zack Polanski triumphed over Green MPs Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns who were standing on a joint co-leadership platform. These MPs represent rurally focussed constituencies, but Polanski beat them for the Green Party leadership by a margin of five to one.
Polanski has emphasised social justice, taxes on the wealthy, nationalisation of utilities such as water and opposition to NATO. Since then, the Green Party’s focus has shifted more to urban politics. This led to the by-election success in Gorton and Denton at the end of February 2026 when Hannah Spencer comfortably beat the (former academic) Reform candidate Matt Goodwin.
The Green Party’s appeal to the left has been helped by the lack of a well organised left-wing alternative to Labour. It was widely felt that the nascent ‘Your Party’, formed by dissident leftist and Independent MPs would be competing with the Greens for left-wing votes. However, the Your Party suffered disastrous splits and imploded even before take-off, leaving the Green Party as the favourite for many on the hard left.
Currently the Green Party’s electoral and political basis involves a (some would say incongruous) coalition consisting of traditional ecologists, left wing campaigners and Gaza campaign activists. Undoubtedly the prospect of capturing 16 per cent of the national at a General Election would be regarded a great stride forward for the Greens. It can be argued that beyond this the policy scrutiny and potential internal contradictions of the Greens' new political alliance could pose problems for appeal to more centre political ground. However, this may not worry Zack Polans ki too much at this time. The prize of gaining a few dozen Parliamentary seats at the next General Election may be, for now at least, a satisfying goal.
