| 6 mins read
The forthcoming general election will be the most consequential for the Republic of Ireland since partition: the potential coming to power of a left-wing government. This spectre looms on the back of the ‘earthquake’ general election of 2020 in which the anti-establishment Sinn Féin party secured a record number of first preference votes and seats.
Prior to 2008, electoral politics was dominated by the so-called ‘two-and-a-half party’ system, delineating a Fianna Fail-led or a Fine Gael-led coalition. Fianna Fail—the self-titled republican party—formed single-party governments for much of 1932–1982, acting as the majority coalition partner in almost all years from 1987–2011. Meanwhile, the highest percentage of first preference votes received by the various collectives of left-leaning parties in Ireland was approximately 24.5 per cent between 1948–1992. The final pre-2008 general election witnessed a total first preference vote of 22.5 per cent for all left-leaning parties—a mere 7.5 per cent of which was for Sinn Féin or socialist parties.
Following fifteen years of unprecedented economic growth, the 2008 economic crash was a severe political and economic shock. Public finances collapsed, GDP fell by a fifth and the state racked up tens of billions of euros in debt through bank nationalisation. In 2011, a Fine Gael/Labour coalition succeeded Fianna Fail, with the latter collapsing by more than 24 per cent. In the subsequent 2016 election, Fine Gael’s vote share fell by a third, whilst the Labour Party lost nearly 80 per cent of their Dail representation owing to austerity policies pursued in government. Fine Gael then cobbled together a minority government composed of barely one third of Dail seats. During this time, homelessness figures increased from 3,800 in 2011 to over 10,000 by the 2020 general election; prices rose by three times the level of nominal wage increases; rental prices surged by around 50 percent, while the supply of social housing fell to historic lows.
Politics post-2020: tout a changé?
2020 was an earthquake: Sinn Féin won the popular vote for the first time and secured thirty-seven seats. Caught unaware, the party jettisoned eleven potential seats by failing to run second candidates in several constituencies. The remaining left-leaning parties and independents won a further thirty-two seats, winning a combined total of sixty-nine seats and 41.5 percent of first preference votes, shattering previous tallies. Having almost witnessed the impossible, the conservative forces finally overcame their largely contrived differences to form an historically unprecedented ‘grand coalition’.
The election result and subsequent formation of the Fianna Fail-Fine Gael-Green Party coalition provoked a broader political debate: had Irish politics overcome its civil war past and finally moved to a more conventional left/right political cleavage? Figure 2 would seem to suggest some form of ideological shift, but this must be read with caution.
Sinn Féin’s vote—almost 60 per cent of the left bloc’s vote in 2020—contains a sizeable ‘protest vote’ element. Opinion polling suggests that substantial Sinn Féin support is symbolic of a relatively volatile electorate with ‘a nebulous sense of discontent’, rather than a profound ideological shift leftward. Their support base is solidly working class, while the Green Party and Social Democrat and Labour votes feature the socially liberal urban middle class who are less concerned with redistributive political economy.
Since the pandemic, right-wing groups capitalised on public discontent with anti-lockdown protests. When pandemic restrictions ended and Ireland accepted tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees as the Ukraine war broke out, the anti-Covid restrictions protests morphed into anti-immigration demonstrations, seeing the right co-opt some redistributive arguments. The appearance of anti-immigrant protests—accompanied by a more pronounced support for parties of the far right—aligns with a fall in support for Sinn Féin and the left-leaning bloc.
The upcoming general election
Whilst 2020 recorded considerable electoral volatility, it was not at the height of the preceding two elections. The appointment of a new taoiseach in April 2024 has enthused the government. Ironically, party fragmentation has increased the opportunity for the two main parties to stave off the electoral threat from the left. The 2020 results and subsequent years of coalition have demonstrated that two centre-right parties receiving a combined vote share in the low forties may be all that is needed to govern in perpetuity. The combined level of support for the two main parties during the recent EU (41 per cent) and local government (46 per cent) elections along with the recent opinion poll data—as shown in Figure 3—suggests this could be the case.
The continued fragmentation—or recoalescence—of the Sinn Féin vote will be key to the formation of a left-wing government. History demonstrates that electoral support for the left rises and falls on the back of one big party. However, Sinn Féin-associated mass protest has not been a consistent feature of post-pandemic politics as the far right filled the vacuum. With the election imminent, it is unlikely that significant momentum could be built up.
Collectively, the data and the broader public mood would suggest that the opportunity for a left-wing government has passed. The most likely outcome is an even three-way split between Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, with each securing 20–25 per cent of first preference votes, while independents secure around 15 per cent and others around 20 per cent. While the combined left-leaning vote could remain close to its current level, this will prove insufficient to form a government.
Need help using Wiley? Click here for help using Wiley
