Reform UK’s Electoral Threat to the Conservative Party

SUMMARY

• The ‘surge-and-collapse’ shock suffered by the Conservatives is an existential threat, as Reform potentially supplants the Conservatives.
• Beyond normal competition with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK now threaten the Conservatives—including in traditionally safe seats—either directly or by splitting the vote and letting Labour win.
• The Conservatives need a leader who is credible on immigration and can compete with Farage, but much also depends on Reform's future and the nature of any relationship between the parties.
• Already, the next election looks set to be not only a battle of left versus right, but also of right versus right.

The UK’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system famously promotes two-party politics—and, since the 1920s, has protected the Conservatives’ and Labour’s positions as the two major parties. Today, the UK party system may be on the brink of a once-in-a-century change. The Conservatives suffered a crushing defeat in 2024 and were left with just 121 MPs. They lost votes and scores of seats to Labour, but also lost votes and seats to the centrist Liberal Democrats and the right-wing populist Reform UK. Since the election, Reform has overtaken the Conservatives in the polls and gained control of several councils. Nigel Farage’s party could potentially supplant the Conservatives as the major party on the right.

What Causes the Collapse of a Major Party

Alan Ware argues that major parties in two-party systems are usually insulated from sudden collapse. Their size, public profile and credibility as governments in waiting means they attract voters dissatisfied with the other major party. Even after heavy defeats, these advantages usually protect major parties.

Problems arise, however, when they have to fight on two fronts simultaneously because of a surge in support for a minor party (or parties). Strategies for revival may now conflict. The sudden collapse of both the British Liberals after 1916 and the Canadian Progressive Conservatives after 1993 can be traced, in part, to this two-front problem.

These ‘surge-and-collapse’ shocks are more than ‘bad’ election results. They are existential threats. Bad defeats include Labour’s 10-point vote decrease in 1983 and the Conservatives’ 11-point decrease in 1997. Existential defeats include the Liberals’ 18-point vote decrease in 1918—and, potentially, the Conservatives’ 20-point fall in 2024.

Why the Conservatives are Fighting on Two Fronts

The Conservatives’ problems go far beyond normal two-party competition with Labour in marginal constituencies. The Liberal Democrats and Reform UK now threaten them—including in traditionally safe seats—either directly or by splitting the vote and letting Labour win.

The threats are easily illustrated. Figure 1A shows a marginal constituency with votes balanced between the Conservatives and Labour. The emergence of the Liberal Democrats (1B) might detach a few votes from both (the small pink and light-blue blocks), but a centre party will be squeezed because it struggles to fight on two fronts. The emergence of Reform UK (1C) to the right of the Conservatives detaches votes only from the latter, handing victory to Labour.

In a previously safe Conservative seat, where voter preferences skew right, Labour gains little from dissatisfaction with the Tories (Figure 2A). The entry of a centrist challenger (2B) makes the seat competitive: the Liberal Democrats can effectively appeal to ex-Conservative protest voters, as well as to Labour supporters for tactical votes (pink and small light-blue blocks in 2B). The ‘wasted vote’ logic works in their favour because a vote for the weak major party—in this case Labour—is ‘wasted’. Reform UK might not attract many tactical votes from the left but it could split the Conservative vote in a surge-and-collapse process (RUK’s blue segment in 2C).

Why did the Conservatives lose the 2024 General Election?

The Conservatives’ 2024 defeat was devastating because ‘normal’ vote losses to Labour were amplified by losses in ‘safe’ constituencies to two minor parties. The Liberal Democrats notionally gained 60 such seats from the Conservatives.

Reform UK won five seats in 2024. Four resembled the scenario in Figure 2C. Reform’s main contribution, however, was taking votes in Conservative-held seats where Labour was the main challenger. Labour gained 182 seats from the Conservatives. In 95 constituencies, Labour overturned majorities of over 20 points, sometimes with modest increases in its own vote, because Reform split the right-wing vote.

Most of the 121 seats won by the Conservatives are vulnerable. All nine seats where Reform was second would fall with a 10-point switch from Conservative voters. Most of the seats where the Liberal Democrats finished second would fall on a 6-point swing. A 10-point shift from Conservative to Reform would deliver Reform 40 of the 87 Conservative-held seats where Labour was second.

Will the Conservations lose the next election?

The Conservatives’ crushing defeat represented voters’ verdict on 14 years of broken promises, especially around curbing net migration. This was the main reason ex-Conservative voters gave for defecting to Reform.

Reconnecting with these voters requires a Conservative leader who is credible on immigration and can compete for attention with Reform’s Nigel Farage. Kemi Badenoch, elected leader in November 2024, has so far struggled. Her strident rhetoric on immigration and Europe has also done nothing to win back centrist voters who defected to the Liberal Democrats.

The situation facing the Conservatives is grave. Is it salvageable? Much may depend on Reform. Nigel Farage is not considered a unifying figure and many voters are antipathetic. Reform’s poll surge, however, may indicate that Farage’s appeal has broadened. For many voters, Farage is Reform, a charismatic figure who transcends the party. Were he to stop being leader for some reason, it is not clear that Reform’s electoral appeal would survive.

Could the Conservatives and Reform merge into one party?

Five eventualities can be identified in future Conservative-Reform relations:

1. Reversion to the status quo ante: in this scenario, the Conservatives retain their major-party status by clawing back lost electoral support from Reform. But memories of the last Conservative government are still fresh, and this outcome depends on Reform imploding.
2. Unofficial ‘non-aggression pact’: the Conservatives and Reform tacitly endorse tactical voting. But the parties are often competitive in the same constituencies. It might not be obvious which party is best placed to challenge Labour – and there is no guarantee that supporters would vote tactically.
3. Formal electoral pact: the Conservatives and Reform divide up constituencies and field one candidate in each. However, there would be strong disagreements about how to divide constituencies and supporters might be reluctant to switch support.
4. Full merger: the Conservatives and Reform combine in a single organisation and avoid splitting the right-wing vote. But mergers are usually sought after other approaches have failed.
5. Completing the surge-and-collapse: Reform tries to complete the task of supplanting its rival. It runs strong campaigns in Conservative-held seats and targets Labour-held marginals.

Although the opinion polls presently look bleak, Reform has the hallmarks of a protest party, lacking governing know-how, and may be susceptible to splits. Already, the next election looks set to be not only a battle of left versus right, but also of right versus right.

Digested Read created by the authors with editorial support from Anya Pearson.