Labour’s Climate Policy is Trapped Between Reform UK and the Greens

SUMMARY

• Stability in the UK’s party and electoral system between between the 1990s and 2021 enabled the UK to become a climate leader. 
• But since the 2024 General Election, climate policy has been pulled in two directions, most noticeable over the issue of net zero. 
• Analysis of the 138 constituencies where the Greens or Reform came second in the 2026 local elections suggests climate policy will become increasingly important for the Labour government. 
• Housing, transport and the costs of living are likely to become the new battleground for climate policy. 

For three decades, climate change policy in the UK was driven by a stable political environment at Westminster, underpinned by classic two party majoritarianism. The two main political parties were in relative agreement about the need for climate policies and as a result, it had low electoral salience. The UK became a world leader in its climate policy on the basis of this consensus.

However, recent elections have turned this electoral and institutional stability on its head. The 2024 General Election saw a Labour victory on a wafer-thin landslide (66 per cent of the seats on just 33 per cent of the vote), while support for Reform UK (15 per cent) and the Greens (seven per cent) grew dramatically. Local elections in 2025 and 2026 underscored this collapse of the two-party system, with five parties routinely gaining over 10 per cent of the vote. But what does this electoral reversal mean for climate action?

A breakdown of the climate consensus

The crumbling of the climate consensus was not instigated by the rise of new political parties (that honour belongs to the Net Zero Scrutiny Group of dissident Conservative MPs). But it is central to Reform’s rhetoric. Nigel Farage regularly deploys populist arguments against net zero, hailing it as the destroyer of jobs and the cause of energy bill increases. By March 2026, seven of the ten councils Reform won in the 2025 local elections had abandoned their climate targets and three had removed earlier climate emergency declarations. Climate was central to the Green party’s 2024 manifesto also; the party doubling down on the importance of net zero with a new 2040 target.

The huge rise in electoral support for these two parties has influenced the stance of the two main parties and, as a result, climate policy is being pulled in two directions. On the right, Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch has joined Reform UK in committing the Conservatives to scrapping net zero, describing it as ‘political fiction’. On the left, the rapid rise of the Greens (emphasized further by Hannah Spencer’s win in the Gorton & Denton by election in March 2026) has forced Labour to solidify its climate commitments.

The 2026 local elections and climate policy

The 2026 local elections demonstrate just how important climate policy will be for Labour going forwards. As Table 1 demonstrates, both Reform and the Greens consolidated their support in constituencies where they had come second in the 2024 General Election.

For the Greens, this was in large urban centres like Sheffield and Manchester. They won every single ward in Manchester Rusholme and Sheffield Central. For Reform, these gains tended to be in smaller towns in broader city regions like South Shields and Wakefield. They too, won every single ward in several of these constituencies including Makerfield and Hartlepool.

In some seats, like Gorton and Denton, Labour’s vote share completely collapsed and every single ward was won by either Reform or the Greens. All these seats present vulnerabilities for Labour at the next election. Our analysis shows that if these results in these councils were replicated across all 138 constituencies where the Greens or Reform came second, these challenger parties would be in strong positions to take 73 seats (19 for the Greens and 54 for Reform).

Climate policy in the new political environment

The three byelections held in 2026 accelerated the destruction of the political consensus on climate policy. Gorton and Denton saw Reform attack net zero, grounded in arguments around the cost-of-living crisis. And the Holborn and St Pancras by election was elevated by the selection of Green party leader Zack Polanski as the (ultimately losing) candidate.

Our analysis of how Reform are consolidating their support across constituencies at the very local level, suggests that if Labour want to fight off the challenge of those opposing climate policy – they will need to take questions of social justice much more seriously. Housing, transport and the costs of living are likely to become the new battlegrounds for climate policy.

There are signs that Andy Burnham is aware of this. His recent policies like the £2 cap on bus fares and the appointment of Miatta Fahnbulleh as Energy Secretary show an understanding of the links between social justice and climate action. But climate policy is not his natural home; he has been seen to waver on issues like North Sea oil and gas licenses.

How to keep the UK’s climate policy on track

The collapse of the traditional party system dynamics in UK politics, exemplified by the 2026 local elections, raise huge challenges for the pursuit of climate policy. The success of Reform brings a real danger of climate backsliding, but the Green surge brings opportunities to create a new climate agenda. Responding to electoral pressure on both sides will require Burnham’s government to refocus climate policy on the benefits for low-income households in areas such as housing and transport. There are no guarantees, but this seems the most plausible pathway to keep the UK’s climate policy on track.